Why Thursday’s By-Elections are a Make-or-Break Moment for Kenya’s Big Coalitions
As of midnight on February 24, the loudspeakers have gone silent and the campaign convoys have parked. In Isiolo South, West Kabras, Muminji, and Evurore, the “ground” is now being left to the voters.
While the IEBC has confirmed its technical readiness for the Thursday, February 26 polls, political analysts are looking past the immediate winners. This by-election cycle is being viewed as the first real “stress test” for Kenya’s major political machines as they begin to eye the 2027 General Election.
1. The UDA “Fortress” vs. The Opposition Resurgence
For the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), these by-elections are about validation. Having campaigned heavily on the “Bottom-Up” economic agenda, the party is looking to prove that its support remains unshaken despite the economic headwinds of 2025 and early 2026.
Conversely, for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and its allies, these races represent a chance to reclaim territory. A win in a place like West Kabras or a strong showing in the Isiolo South parliamentary race would provide the momentum needed to re-energize a base that has been looking for a clear direction in the post-reconciliation era.
2. The Technology Factor: Testing the KIEMS 2026 Upgrade
The IEBC has a lot to prove this Thursday. Following the reconstitution of the commission in 2025, Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon has emphasized that the technology being used this week is a refined version of the kits used in previous cycles.
Real-time Transmission: The Commission has promised that results from all polling stations in Mbeere North (Muminji and Evurore) will be available on the public portal within hours of closing.
Biometric Reliability: With many rural voters in Isiolo South, the KIEMS kits’ ability to handle offline identification and satellite transmission in remote areas will be under the microscope.
3. The “Independent” Wildcards
One of the most significant trends of 2026 is the rise of the Independent Candidate. In these by-elections, several high-profile individuals have shunned the major party tickets, citing a desire for “issue-based” leadership over party loyalty.
In Isiolo South, the presence of strong independent contenders could split the traditional voting blocs, leading to a “photo finish” result that could surprise the national party offices in Nairobi.
4. Voter Apathy or Voter Anger?
The most critical metric to watch on Thursday isn’t just who wins, but how many show up. Traditionally, by-elections see turnouts as low as 30–40%. However, if turnout in West Kabras or Evurore spikes, it will signal a highly motivated electorate—usually a sign that voters are either deeply satisfied or, more likely, looking to send a message to the establishment.
What to Watch as the Polls Open
The “Golden Hour”: Watch for the turnout between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM. In Kenya, high early turnout usually indicates a well-oiled party machine at work.
Social Media Narratives: With the official campaign period closed, the battle will move to TikTok and WhatsApp. How the “win” is framed online will be as important as the actual numbers.
The Security Perimeter: Keep an eye on the Garbatulla and Malava tallying centers. The IEBC’s ability to manage the crowd at these focal points will determine the perceived credibility of the final announcement.
The Bottom Line
Thursday is more than just a vote; it is a data point. The results will dictate which parties need to go back to the drawing board and which ones can claim they have the “hearts and minds” of the people as we march toward 2027.
