On Saturday, March 28, 2026, CPAC organizers announced that Vice President JD Vance has won the 2028 presidential straw poll for the second year in a row. However, unlike last year’s landslide, Vance now faces a surging challenger from within the President’s own Cabinet: Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
1. The Numbers: A Tale of Two Frontrunners
The poll, which surveyed over 1,600 of the party’s most dedicated activists, showed a dramatic narrowing of the field. While Vance remains the favorite, his dominance is being tested by Rubio’s visibility on the world stage.
2. Why Vance Still LeadsVance’s 53% support is rooted in his perceived role as the “ideological anchor” of the MAGA movement. Attendees cited his focus on working-class issues and his vocal Christian faith as reasons for their loyalty.”He’s a real, genuine person, and he’s willing to proclaim his faith in public,” said Paul Empson, an attendee from Fort Worth. For the grassroots, Vance represents a younger, polished continuation of the President’s populist domestic agenda.
3. The Rubio Factor: The “Interventionist” SurgeMarco Rubio’s jump from a mere 3% to 35% in a single year is being called the “Rubio Surge.” As Secretary of State, Rubio has become the face of the administration’s most high-stakes foreign policy moves, including the ongoing military actions in Iran and the ousting of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
4. A Party Navigating WarThe poll also highlighted a base that is largely unified on foreign policy. Despite some internal rifts over the Iran war, nearly 90% of respondents approved of using military force to topple the Iranian regime. This sentiment has directly benefited Rubio’s “interventionist” profile while potentially marginalizing more isolationist voices like Steve Bannon, who failed to reach significant numbers this year.
